The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) draft guidelines on gold loans, if implemented in their current form, are expected to impact non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) and mid-tier banks in the near term, more significantly than larger banks, according to analysts.
Net profit of 19 listed banks is likely to decline by 4 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) for the quarter ended March (Q4FY25) mainly due to pressure on net interest margins (NIM) as a result of rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), according to analysts' estimates. Additionally, loan growth is expected to further slowdown amid low demand in certain secured products, stress in the unsecured segment, and a high cost to deposit (CD) ratio across the system.
Securitisation - sale of loans to investors - by lenders, including banks and non-banking financial companies (NBFCs), crossed Rs 50,000 crore during the fourth quarter ended March 2025 (Q4F25). This is a tad higher than Rs 48,000 crore during the same period of FY24.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Deputy Governor Swaminathan J criticised some non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) for lax loan appraisal practices and charging excessive interest rates, even as he acknowledged the sector's rapid expansion over the past decade, especially in recent years. "Unfortunately, some NBFCs seem to believe they can operate with weak underwriting in the pursuit of fast growth while levying excessive and unsustainable interest rates - sometimes disguised as upfront or processing fees - followed by aggressive recovery methods in case of default," Swaminathan said at the conference of NBFCs in Chennai last month.
The pace of loan growth among public sector banks (PSBs) has seen a surge in the financial year 2024-25, and this is an exception to the overall moderation in bank credit during FY25. PSU banks' share in incremental credit rose to 57.3 per cent in March from 51.7 per cent a year ago, according to the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) Monetary Policy Report (April 2025).
The gap between credit and deposit growth in the banking system is expected to decline sharply to 80 basis points (bps) in the next financial year from an average of 386 bps over the FY22-Q3FY25 period, according to rating agency India Ratings. This would be against the backdrop of sharp moderation in the incremental loan deposit ratio (LDR) of the Indian banking system to 85 per cent in February 2025 from 117-118 per cent in the same month of 2024.
The gold loan portfolio of banks continued to show strong off-take with 76 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) growth in January 2025 amid moderation in retail credit - especially in the unsecured credit segment - following increase in risk weights in November 2023. The gold loan pool had grown 17.4 per cent Y-o-Y in January 2024.
'I don't know when I will be able to access those funds.'
Raising overseas debt has become prohibitively expensive due to the depreciating rupee.
India Ratings on Thursday said that any broad-based or strong recovery in corporate capital expenditure was unlikely in the upcoming financial year 2026 (FY26) due to uncertainty of domestic and external demand. The uncertainty is adversely affecting the overall corporate sector capex. Interest rates on credit are not the primary deterrent to decisions about capital expenditure, said Soumyajit Niyogi, director, core analytical group, Ind-Ra, in a webinar on the credit market outlook.
'Challenge is basically near-term growth as the outlook has turned a bit adverse.'
At a time when banks are finding it challenging to mobilise resources, State Bank of India (SBI)-the country's largest lender-has devised a three-pronged strategy to boost deposit accretion. First is an aspirational product that promises to make depositors lakhpatis by helping them grow their deposits to Rs 1 lakh through recurring deposit (RD) schemes.
A grooming branch network for servicing HNIs is a stepping stone for a full-fledged wealth management business.
'In addition, we have geopolitics and politics and all the other things that will affect commodity prices.'
Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's call for making lending rates affordable may not resonate anytime soon as banks still struggle with margin compression, and await clues from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on liquidity and rate action. Hinting that any lending rate cut was some time away, State Bank of India (SBI) managing director Vinay M Tonse said there was still some aggression in the market regarding deposit pricing.
Private sector banks in India are taking the lead in the adoption of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in areas like fraud detection, customer segmentation, and chat automation, according to a Reserve Bank of India (RBI) study. The asset size and capital adequacy ratio are influencing the rate of adoption.
Roughly 40% of this projected outlay is expected to go towards emerging industries, including green hydrogen, clean energy, semiconductors, and electric vehicles.
Eying benefits from digital banking, lenders are now looking at building Unified Recovery Interface (URI) for enhancing efficiency, reducing costs, and getting good prices for properties of defaulters. This would be managed by PSB Alliance Ltd, a company set up by all public sector banks in the country. M V Rao, chairman, Indian Banks' Association (IBA), said: "Till now we had Unified Payments Interface (UPI), a product developed by National Payments Corporation Ltd (NPCI).
'In the case of corporate credit, especially to AAA borrowers, lenders will have to take a fresh look at pricing.'
Public sector banks (PSBs) posted 16.1 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) growth in net profit at Rs 39,974 crore during the June 2024 quarter. While net interest income (NII) showed subdued growth of 7.1 per cent, provisions and contingencies declined by 10.5 per cent Y-o-Y. This aided the bottom line to show steady growth.
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